The Run Sheet

✅ How it went — Friday October 9

Don ran the night off his own sheet, built from the site balancer and changed as people came and went. It is not a sheet this page built, so there are no planned splits below. What there is: the real rosters from the match record, each priced with the model exactly as it stood before the night, and graded honestly against what happened. 5 of the 15 games were a full twelve-human lobby with no bots; in the other 10, bots filled the empty seats to 6v6, as always. 15 customs, 13 names, nobody sat.

Winner in gold. The pre-night favourite went 8–3, and side A won 2 against 5.7 expected. Crowns: 🎯 kills Kyle 290 · 💚 healing Zion 154k · 🧱 damage soaked Chris 340k. Kill leaders: Kyle 290/57 · Ice 280/73 · Michael 225/62 · Chris 197/73 · Melo 190/48 · Don 174/87.

What the night said about the least-proven: David above the pre-night price · Cre below the pre-night price · Vinny above the pre-night price — on a handful of games, so read the direction, not a number. The repetition receipt: Chris+Mo rode together 12 of 12 shared games against the 5.5 a random split deals, and the night's mean pair excess was 2.484, against an average of 1.62 across the 4 sheet-built nights on record.

Did the prices hold? Yes — the favourite won 8 of 11, and nobody's run of games landed outside what the prices allowed. Across all 13 players, the correlation between what the model rated a player and how their night went was -0.31 — the night ran against the ratings.

⚖ What still applies

• Everybody plays. The prime decree, permanent. Bots fill every empty seat to 6v6 — it is always 6v6, whatever the human count, and nobody ever sits.
• The grade doesn't need a sheet. Teams come from the match record, prices come from the model as it stood beforehand. No sheet means no plan to grade, not no grading.
• Nobody is judged on night one. Or night four. Ratings move with games, not arguments.

📜 Last time out (10/2), for the record

12 customs, no sheet, 11 names. The favourite went 7–5 and side A won 10 against 6.1 expected. Kill leaders: Kyle 425/120 · Ice 337/84 · Jonathan 310/90 · Michael 303/86.

Repetition that night: Jonathan+Kyle together 9 of 12, mean pair excess 1.376. Full grade in the data.